Volume 1, Issue 1 (1-2026)
Economy and Food Security 2026, 1(1): 23-33 |
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Halajiyan S, Eshghi F, Mojaverian S M. (2026). A Comparison of Exchange Rate Effects on the Price of Selected Proteins in Iran. Economy and Food Security. 1(1), 23-33. doi:10.61882/efs.2025.74
URL: http://efs.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-74-en.html
URL: http://efs.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-74-en.html
1- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
Abstract: (17 Views)
Extended Abstract:
Background: Inflation has been one of Iran's economic bottlenecks over the past years, and finding the main source of its creation is one of the main issues of the government's attention and policy. Inflation increases the general level of prices or causes a continuous decrease in purchasing power. As the country is dependent on imported goods and foodstuffs that affect foreign monetary policies, especially currency fluctuations, it can greatly help examine inflation. The occurrence of fluctuation is converted into a change in the volume of production. These domestic trade changes have a great impact on the volume of production, budget deficit, liquidity, and domestic prices. Raw materials are the main human needs, and their prices are increasing. From these policies, they show themselves to increase food prices. Iran is also developing, which has faced double-digit inflation rates for many years, and the government's efforts to identify the roots of inflation have always focused on the issue of security, considering the nutrients in the economic development process. Nutrition is always present, and the price of food, especially that of animal products, has been the focus of policymakers as the key and influential factors on food supply and consumption and agricultural products. Protein is one of the four nutrients in the human diet, but its consumption is decreasing in Iran due to the sharp increase in the price of meat. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the exchange rate effects on the price of selected animal proteins in Iran.
Methods: In this research, long-term and short-term relationships between price changes and the prices of mutton, chicken meat, and eggs were investigated using the ARDL approach. For this purpose, data on mutton meat price, chicken meat price, egg price, and exchange rate were used on a weekly basis between March 21, 2018, to the end of March 2021. Information and data were collected by referring to the database of the Central Bank of Iran, the data of Tehran's fruit and vegetable fields, and the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Results: A long-term relationship was observed for chicken meat. The results of the egg model showed that the processes of mutton price, chicken meat price, and egg price were significant in ARDL (2,0), ARDL (1,4), and ARDL (2,0), respectively. Examining the results of the short-term effect of the exchange rate on the price of mutton meat shows that it changes the mutton meat price with a negative and significant relationship. The error correction coefficient showed a negative and significant relationship with the price of mutton meat. According to the results of the short-term relationship between the exchange rate and the price of meat, the changes in the dollar price difference and the dollar price difference with an interval were not significant. However, changes in the dollar price with two breaks and three breaks were significant. The error correction coefficient had a negative and significant relationship with the change in the price of chicken meat. In relation to eggs, the difference in the price of eggs had a positive and significant relationship with the weekly price of eggs. Moreover, the error correction coefficient showed a negative and significant relationship with the weekly price of eggs.
Conclusion: Estimating the price of eggs on the price of mutton and the price of eggs shows that the dollar price affects the selected animal food prices (mutton, chicken meat, and eggs). The analysis of the ratio between the exchange rate and the price of chicken meat shows that the exchange rate has two lags on the price of chicken meat. Therefore, it is suggested to employ supportive policies in the short term to prevent the reduction of economic access to consumables. Considering the important role of animal food, especially mutton and chicken meat, in household food security, the development of explanatory models for the factors affecting vegetable prices is suitable for future studies. In addition, policymaking should consider the role of the exchange rate in consumer consumption and productionIn the long term, the development of production chains and the supply of protein items and policies for the sustainable production of protein products, the development of models explaining factors affecting the price of animal protein is a suitable subject for future studies considering the important role of animal protein, especially mutton and chicken meat, in providing household food security. Additionally, comparing the price effectiveness of protein items from exchange rate fluctuations and including other influential factors can be considered in future research. Policymakers should consider the role of the exchange rate in the welfare of consumers and producers. Protecting the price of important items that provide food security against currency shocks should be on the policymaker's agenda.
Background: Inflation has been one of Iran's economic bottlenecks over the past years, and finding the main source of its creation is one of the main issues of the government's attention and policy. Inflation increases the general level of prices or causes a continuous decrease in purchasing power. As the country is dependent on imported goods and foodstuffs that affect foreign monetary policies, especially currency fluctuations, it can greatly help examine inflation. The occurrence of fluctuation is converted into a change in the volume of production. These domestic trade changes have a great impact on the volume of production, budget deficit, liquidity, and domestic prices. Raw materials are the main human needs, and their prices are increasing. From these policies, they show themselves to increase food prices. Iran is also developing, which has faced double-digit inflation rates for many years, and the government's efforts to identify the roots of inflation have always focused on the issue of security, considering the nutrients in the economic development process. Nutrition is always present, and the price of food, especially that of animal products, has been the focus of policymakers as the key and influential factors on food supply and consumption and agricultural products. Protein is one of the four nutrients in the human diet, but its consumption is decreasing in Iran due to the sharp increase in the price of meat. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the exchange rate effects on the price of selected animal proteins in Iran.
Methods: In this research, long-term and short-term relationships between price changes and the prices of mutton, chicken meat, and eggs were investigated using the ARDL approach. For this purpose, data on mutton meat price, chicken meat price, egg price, and exchange rate were used on a weekly basis between March 21, 2018, to the end of March 2021. Information and data were collected by referring to the database of the Central Bank of Iran, the data of Tehran's fruit and vegetable fields, and the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Results: A long-term relationship was observed for chicken meat. The results of the egg model showed that the processes of mutton price, chicken meat price, and egg price were significant in ARDL (2,0), ARDL (1,4), and ARDL (2,0), respectively. Examining the results of the short-term effect of the exchange rate on the price of mutton meat shows that it changes the mutton meat price with a negative and significant relationship. The error correction coefficient showed a negative and significant relationship with the price of mutton meat. According to the results of the short-term relationship between the exchange rate and the price of meat, the changes in the dollar price difference and the dollar price difference with an interval were not significant. However, changes in the dollar price with two breaks and three breaks were significant. The error correction coefficient had a negative and significant relationship with the change in the price of chicken meat. In relation to eggs, the difference in the price of eggs had a positive and significant relationship with the weekly price of eggs. Moreover, the error correction coefficient showed a negative and significant relationship with the weekly price of eggs.
Conclusion: Estimating the price of eggs on the price of mutton and the price of eggs shows that the dollar price affects the selected animal food prices (mutton, chicken meat, and eggs). The analysis of the ratio between the exchange rate and the price of chicken meat shows that the exchange rate has two lags on the price of chicken meat. Therefore, it is suggested to employ supportive policies in the short term to prevent the reduction of economic access to consumables. Considering the important role of animal food, especially mutton and chicken meat, in household food security, the development of explanatory models for the factors affecting vegetable prices is suitable for future studies. In addition, policymaking should consider the role of the exchange rate in consumer consumption and productionIn the long term, the development of production chains and the supply of protein items and policies for the sustainable production of protein products, the development of models explaining factors affecting the price of animal protein is a suitable subject for future studies considering the important role of animal protein, especially mutton and chicken meat, in providing household food security. Additionally, comparing the price effectiveness of protein items from exchange rate fluctuations and including other influential factors can be considered in future research. Policymakers should consider the role of the exchange rate in the welfare of consumers and producers. Protecting the price of important items that provide food security against currency shocks should be on the policymaker's agenda.
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