1- Tarbiat Modares University
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Extended abstract
Introduction and purpose: One of the most important successful organizations in the Central Asian region is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose membership in this organization has led to their economic integration. In this regard, one of the sectors affected by Iran's membership in the Shanghai Organization is the agricultural sector. Threrefore In this research, the factors influencing the trade between Iran's agricultural products and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization were investigated and the question whether Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization improves the bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and the member countries of this organization was answered. .
Materials and methods: To achieve the goal of the research, the data of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran) have been used, emphasizing cross-sectional dependence for the period from 2001 to 2022. In this regard, Pesaran cross-sectional dependence tests (2004), Pesaran unit root test and Westerlund cointegration test (2007) have been used. Then, the gravity model has been used to estimate the coefficients.
Results: In the present research, first, the cross-sectional dependence test of Pesaran (2004) was used for cross-sectional dependence. After confirming the cross-sectional dependence, in order to estimate the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model, Pesaran unit root test and Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test were performed. The results showed that the variables of GDP, geographical distance, real exchange rate, similarity variable and Dummy variable of membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization are the influencing variables on bilateral trade relations of agricultural products of Iran and member countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In this regard, a one percent increase in the gross domestic product of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has increased the bilateral trade volume of agricultural products of Iran and the member countries by 0.04 percent. Also, a one percent increase in the real exchange rate increased the bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by 0.17 percent. Also, the distance variable has reduced the trade between Iran and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Also, the variable coefficient of membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization indicates that Iran's membership in this organization has increased 0.19 percent of trade between Iran and its member countries.
Conclusion: According to the results of this research, planning for adopting effective commercial policies and strengthening international transport infrastructures is suggested. Finally, considering Iran's almost passive presence in regional agreements, it seems that the country's recent membership in the Shanghai Organization can provide suitable opportunities to expand political and economic cooperation with its members.
Introduction and purpose: One of the most important successful organizations in the Central Asian region is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose membership in this organization has led to their economic integration. In this regard, one of the sectors affected by Iran's membership in the Shanghai Organization is the agricultural sector. Threrefore In this research, the factors influencing the trade between Iran's agricultural products and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization were investigated and the question whether Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization improves the bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and the member countries of this organization was answered. .
Materials and methods: To achieve the goal of the research, the data of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran) have been used, emphasizing cross-sectional dependence for the period from 2001 to 2022. In this regard, Pesaran cross-sectional dependence tests (2004), Pesaran unit root test and Westerlund cointegration test (2007) have been used. Then, the gravity model has been used to estimate the coefficients.
Results: In the present research, first, the cross-sectional dependence test of Pesaran (2004) was used for cross-sectional dependence. After confirming the cross-sectional dependence, in order to estimate the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model, Pesaran unit root test and Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test were performed. The results showed that the variables of GDP, geographical distance, real exchange rate, similarity variable and Dummy variable of membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization are the influencing variables on bilateral trade relations of agricultural products of Iran and member countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In this regard, a one percent increase in the gross domestic product of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has increased the bilateral trade volume of agricultural products of Iran and the member countries by 0.04 percent. Also, a one percent increase in the real exchange rate increased the bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by 0.17 percent. Also, the distance variable has reduced the trade between Iran and the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Also, the variable coefficient of membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization indicates that Iran's membership in this organization has increased 0.19 percent of trade between Iran and its member countries.
Conclusion: According to the results of this research, planning for adopting effective commercial policies and strengthening international transport infrastructures is suggested. Finally, considering Iran's almost passive presence in regional agreements, it seems that the country's recent membership in the Shanghai Organization can provide suitable opportunities to expand political and economic cooperation with its members.
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2024/02/23 | Accepted: 2024/06/15
Received: 2024/02/23 | Accepted: 2024/06/15
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