Volume 1, Issue 2 (1-2024)
Agric Mark Econ 2024, 1(2): 63-69 |
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ghaffari moghadam Z, Ashtarinejad R. (2024). Investigating the Factors Affecting Iran's Date Export. Agric Mark Econ. 1(2), 63-69. doi:10.61186/ame.1.2.63
URL: http://efs.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-55-en.html
URL: http://efs.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-55-en.html
1- Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Research Institute, Zabul Research Institute
2- Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchistan
2- Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchistan
Abstract: (1448 Views)
Introduction and Objective: Foreign trade is one of the important factors in economic development and provision of foreign exchange revenue. In recent years, the existence of price fluctuations in the oil market has faced many changes in the country's foreign exchange income and has affected the country's economy. And this shows the necessity of diversifying export products and trade and emphasizing the importance of trade in non-oil products. Therefore, it is inevitable to focus on the trade of the agricultural sector with regard to goals such as self-sufficiency and food security and the possibility of high foreign exchange earnings in the said sector. Dates are one of the most important non-oil items in Iran, which have a long history. In terms of date history, Iran has always ranked first in the world.
Material and Methods: In this study, the short-term and long-term effect of the real exchange rate, date production and the ratio of the domestic price to the world price on the export volume of this product using the ARDL model and the error correction model (ECM) in Iran during the years 1370-1400 were estimated. Investigating the long-term relationship between model variables, short-term dynamics of the model and the adjustment speed of the short-term to long-term imbalance has been estimated.
Results: The results show that in the short term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices has a positive and significant relationship on the amount of date exports, and in the long term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the volume of date exports. Also, the results indicate the existence of a long-term and significant relationship between the variables of the model.
Conclusion: Since the exchange rate has a positive effect on the export of dates, with the increase in the exchange rate, the income from the export of dates increases, and this increases the motivation of exporters to increase the amount of date exports. Reducing currency deviations will increase the export of dates, so it is recommended that the country's foreign exchange policies be adopted to support exports and reduce imports of agricultural products. In this regard, prevention of exchange rate fluctuations as well as clear information about the future trend of exchange rate changes will play an effective role in increasing exporters' income and the amount of exports and maintaining Iran's position in global markets. The ratio of the domestic price to the world price in the long term has had a significant effect on the amount of date exports at level 10%. If the government's policy is to reduce exports based on various policies, especially the preservation of water reserves, an increase in the domestic price compared to the world price (through export duties) is suggested.
Material and Methods: In this study, the short-term and long-term effect of the real exchange rate, date production and the ratio of the domestic price to the world price on the export volume of this product using the ARDL model and the error correction model (ECM) in Iran during the years 1370-1400 were estimated. Investigating the long-term relationship between model variables, short-term dynamics of the model and the adjustment speed of the short-term to long-term imbalance has been estimated.
Results: The results show that in the short term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices has a positive and significant relationship on the amount of date exports, and in the long term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the volume of date exports. Also, the results indicate the existence of a long-term and significant relationship between the variables of the model.
Conclusion: Since the exchange rate has a positive effect on the export of dates, with the increase in the exchange rate, the income from the export of dates increases, and this increases the motivation of exporters to increase the amount of date exports. Reducing currency deviations will increase the export of dates, so it is recommended that the country's foreign exchange policies be adopted to support exports and reduce imports of agricultural products. In this regard, prevention of exchange rate fluctuations as well as clear information about the future trend of exchange rate changes will play an effective role in increasing exporters' income and the amount of exports and maintaining Iran's position in global markets. The ratio of the domestic price to the world price in the long term has had a significant effect on the amount of date exports at level 10%. If the government's policy is to reduce exports based on various policies, especially the preservation of water reserves, an increase in the domestic price compared to the world price (through export duties) is suggested.
Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Dates, Error correction model, Exchange rate, Non-oil exports
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2023/12/11 | Accepted: 2024/01/30
Received: 2023/12/11 | Accepted: 2024/01/30
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